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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."